Case Studies

Case Study #2 Nifty50 FMCG

Breakout Case Study on Nifty50FMCG. 

Breakout flare-up is on the way, if Weekly Close is above 36565.

Fibonacci Targets:

  • 61.8%  37401
  • 100%   37921

Case Study

Such case studies are a part of the Nimblr’s Trading Candlesticks Course in a similar manner as below

We are inspecting whether, Nimblr Classical 2-Strength Candle breakout has occurred.

The Range Breakout Concept is being tried to inspect if the Breakout has occurred.

Here, we start with the following chart for the week ended 18June21.

In the above charts, we have to consider Retest as a Qualified Range to inspect the breakout.

If you observe, we have the first two candles in place as above.

We prefer two consecutive Momentum Candles for a Range Breakout.

Till it occurs with the second candle ejecting out of the Range, with Close and High above the range as Breakout confirmation.

The next candle arrives as below

In the above chart, we now rightfully have three Candle Range as below with:

  • RHL @ 35565.25
  • RLL @ 35199.50

Now, we have in sequence an IC, MC, and IC as the three candle range. Next,  we identify the Body Lines.

The Body High Line (‘BHL’) is either the Open or Close, which is the highest among the three candles in the range.

Now, let us look at an expanded view of the chart above:

BHL @ 36287.15 is the Highest Close of the three candle range

BLL @ 35308.40 is the Lowest Open of the three candle range

Between 35308.40 and 36287.15 is the Body of the Range.

The masked area shown is the Body of the Range

As a result of the strength candle High has been higher than BHL, the MC is the Mother Candle and its Low is of much significance.

 Above RHL- 35358.00, if breached lower then MC, then a new Mother Candle will have to be awaited thereafter.

Now, Let us welcome the next candle.

The candle is an IC and is of no relevance. 

Let us move on to the Next Candle then.

This is an MC in reverse direction and not much of any consequences

Moving Ahead, to the next candle.

Now, It does Retest of BO Line and bounces to close near to Open.

The candle in the above charts is a MC but fails to close above the RHL.

In NimblrTA, as per Breakout condition, both the High and Close must be above the RHL.

Next Candle.

In the above chart, it is an MC but in reverse direction with a close below the Open of the Previous Candle as an Engulfing.

Here, price trespasses the previous MC Green candle till the Open and even further down till the Breakout Line with a Low of 35859.

This is the second Retest of the BO Line 35901 confirming support at level 35901.

Next Candle.

Now, we are looking at the Father Candle.

The second of the strength candle arrives. It has close above RHL and has a high above RHL.

Since It is the Father Candle, The Breakout is done.

This can also be a case of Candle Shunting between the three MC’s.

Next Candle

Let us look at an Expanded View of the above chart.

Let us observe Candle Shunting as shown below:

As a result, we saw a fierce dip along with the markets into the Body of Candle Shunting till 36088 in this midweek and bounced as of Wednesday 11Aug21 Close and stays above BO Line 35418.

Without a look at Waves, there is no analysis that can be complete.

Here is the Candlestick Chart and Wave Chart.

Candlestick Chart Below:

Wave Chart as shown below:

Currently, as of midweek, the close is below the HH, but if the weekly close pushes to the end of the week, it can be above the previous HH (as shown below).

Then, it would be bullish next week.

Conclusion

There have been two Breakouts with Breakout Lines at 35901 and 36418.

There has been two Retest too with lows 35912 and 35859.

The second Retest with a Lower Low of 35859 gave another MC.

The third dip has been with a Low 36088.

All these dips received support at a Level around 35900-36000 range.

Multiple Breakout & Multiple Retest are strengthening in case of a rise.  As per Fibonacci Extension, applied to the Parallel Channel as below:

Fibonacci Targets

  • 61.8%  37401
  • 100%   37921

Breakout flare-up is on the way, if Weekly Close is above 36565.

Thank you for reading. Trust this was helpful. 

 

 

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